La Niña sigue allí, no la mueve nadie. Tal vez, por ello, empezamos a encontrarnos con noticias de "reajustes" en el tema de las previsiones climáticas.
Así, desde el Instituto de Ciencia Marina Leibniz, en Alemania, nos dicen que
"el calentamiento global" parará (si no ha parado ya) hasta el 2015"
"el calentamiento global" parará (si no ha parado ya) hasta el 2015"
Desde esta institución, se critica una previsión del del IPCC:
"This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen"
El hallazgo, la previsión, proviene de los primeros resultados de un nuevo modelo climático focalizado en el comportamiento de los oceanos.
"The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998."En relación al papel atlántico de la corriente del golfo sueltan nada menos que esto:
"This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again"para acabar con esto:"That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."
"If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent uncertain"
Fuentes:
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario